India is expected to maintain its Russian crude oil imports at close to current levels after US President Donald Trump waived key sanctions and tariff provisions targeting major buyers of Russian energy. The decision provides temporary relief from a potential trade dispute and gives Indian refiners greater flexibility as they balance energy security, international relations and commercial considerations.

According to reports citing ship-tracking data, India imported approximately 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in September. October shipments are projected to remain around 1.8 million to 1.9 million bpd, indicating that Russia is likely to retain its position as a major supplier to the Indian market.

US Sanctions Waiver Provides Relief to Indian Refiners

The latest development follows the passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed into law on September 18. The legislation authorised tariffs of up to 100% on goods from major purchasers of Russian oil and gas, alongside other sanctions-related measures.

Trump issued an executive order on October 16 waiving specified provisions before the measures were due to take effect. The decision reduces the immediate risk of additional trade penalties for countries continuing to purchase Russian energy, including India.

However, the waiver should not be interpreted as a permanent removal of sanctions-related risks. The US administration retains scope to reconsider its approach, leaving energy trade exposed to future diplomatic and policy changes.

Why Russian Crude Remains Important for India

India's reliance on imported crude oil makes the cost and reliability of energy supplies central to its economic policy. Russian oil became particularly attractive after Western sanctions following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 redirected supplies towards Asian buyers.

Indian refiners increased purchases as discounted Russian grades offered an opportunity to reduce feedstock costs and diversify supply sources. Russia subsequently became one of India's largest crude suppliers, at times accounting for a substantial share of the country's total oil imports.

The latest waiver could help refiners continue evaluating Russian cargoes on commercial terms instead of making abrupt changes solely because of the immediate threat of US tariffs.

Nevertheless, the economic advantage depends on more than the headline crude price. Discounts, shipping costs, insurance, payment arrangements and compliance requirements all influence the final cost of a shipment.

Global Oil Prices Add to India's Energy Challenge

The timing of the US decision is significant because elevated global crude prices can increase India's import expenditure and put pressure on domestic fuel costs, inflation and the current account balance.

India's refiners must weigh the benefits of Russian supplies against alternatives from West Asia, the United States, Africa and other producing regions. A diversified procurement strategy can help limit the impact of supply disruptions, even when one source offers more attractive prices.

If Russian crude remains competitively priced and logistical arrangements remain viable, continued imports could help refiners manage their operating costs. However, the waiver alone does not guarantee lower petrol or diesel prices for consumers, as retail fuel prices also depend on taxes, refining margins, distribution costs and wider market conditions.

India Balances Energy Security With Geopolitical Relations

The development highlights the challenge facing New Delhi as it maintains commercial ties with Moscow while managing its broader economic and strategic relationship with Washington.

For India, crude procurement is primarily an energy-security and economic decision. Abruptly replacing large volumes of Russian oil could require refiners to secure alternative supplies, potentially at higher costs or under less favourable trading conditions.

At the same time, uncertainty over US sanctions and trade policy means Indian companies cannot assume that the current arrangement will remain unchanged. Refiners and policymakers will need to monitor future executive decisions, compliance requirements and developments in bilateral trade negotiations.

The waiver also affects the wider international oil market. India and China are major buyers of Russian crude, and changes in their purchasing patterns can influence shipping routes, regional price differentials and competition for discounted cargoes.

What Happens Next?

In the near term, India's Russian crude imports are expected to remain close to recent levels, according to market estimates. The more important question is whether this purchasing pattern can be sustained if crude prices, freight rates, sanctions enforcement or diplomatic conditions change.

For refiners, the priority will remain securing reliable supplies at competitive landed costs. For the government, the challenge is to protect energy security while limiting exposure to external trade shocks.

Trump's decision has eased an immediate source of uncertainty, but it has not eliminated the underlying risks. India's next moves will likely depend on the relative economics of Russian crude, the availability of alternative suppliers and the direction of US policy.